Narrowing the playing field

Divisional round predictions

Trevor+Lawrence+throws+a+no-look+pass+against+the+Colts+in+a+34-27+week+6+loss+to+the+Colts+despite+his+three+total+touchdowns+on+Oct+16%2C+2022.

Photo by Zach Bollinger.

Trevor Lawrence throws a no-look pass against the Colts in a 34-27 week 6 loss to the Colts despite his three total touchdowns on Oct 16, 2022.

    NFL wildcard weekend came and went, giving us some great games highlighted by Trevor Lawrence who led the Jaguars to a triumphant 27-0 comeback win against the Chargers on Jan 14. Sunday’s slate of games gave us three close games with Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins falling short of a comeback bid against the Bills, losing 34-31, Daniel Jones and the Giants jumped out to a 17-7 lead and held on to win 31-24 against the Vikings and the Bengals survived against the Ravens thanks to the heroic efforts of defensive lineman, Sam Hubbard, who returned a fumble recovery 98 yards for a touchdown as they held on for the 24-17 victory. The 49ers and Cowboys both handled business with 41-23 and 31-14 dominating victories, respectfully. Overall on the weekend, I went 5-1 on my wildcard predictions, so let us get right into this exciting divisional round slate that features all eight teams starting a quarterback under the age of 30. 

 

AFC

#4 Jaguars @ #1 Chiefs 

Jan 21

4:30 p.m. EST

NBC

    Last week, we saw Trevor Lawrence have four interceptions in the first half before turning it around and throwing three touchdowns in the second half. According to StatMuse, Lawrence is the second quarterback to throw for four touchdowns and four interceptions in a playoff game and the first to do so in a winning effort. The Chiefs spent the wildcard weekend resting up after securing the first overall seed and earning the bye-week. The bye-week helps the players rest up before attempting a push to reach the Super Bowl; however, according to the Tennessean, since 1990 the top overall seeds have lost in the divisional round 16 times, in the championship game 14 times, in the Super Bowl 18 times, and won the Super Bowl 14 times. I do not think any of that matters, though, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are just so much better than any of their competition. Despite losing their Tyreek Hill last off-season, the Chiefs went 14-3 and boasted the top-scoring offense while going 6-2 against playoff teams during the regular season. The emergence of running back Jerrick McKinnon who has scored in each of his last six games and adds to an offense that boasts Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster already will be just too much for this youthful Jaguars team. I commend Trevor Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson for their efforts this year, but they have already surpassed expectations and I think their Cinderella run comes to an abrupt end despite a valiant effort in a high-scoring affair. Chiefs 38 Jaguars 34.

 

NFC

#6 Giants @ #1 Eagles 

Jan 21

8:15 p.m. EST

FOX

    Daniel Jones put on a clinic last week against the Vikings, which is something I would never have thought I would say. But it is the absolute truth, according to ProFootballReference, Jones had 300 yards passing and 78 yards passing to pair with his two passing touchdowns. The Giants’ defense held Justin Jefferson to just 47 yards, which is what I had said they would need to do in order to win and they delivered. Like the Chiefs, the Eagles got the weekend off and it plays in their favor as they have been nursing injuries all season and they can finally get healthy in time for the playoffs. The Eagles swept the Giants in their regular season match-ups, but the second game was a meaningless week 18 game that saw the Giants resting the majority of their starting line-up. The Eagles have a 14-3 record, but it is far less dominant than the 14-3 record the Chiefs boast with close wins against bottom-five teams in the Cardinals, Colts and Bears. All that and quarterback Jalen Hurts still being banged up after missing two games due to a shoulder injury makes me hesitant to pick the favorites to win this one. Brian Daboll has the Giants playing with a chip on their shoulder and with another great game by Jones, I believe they pull off the upset in a defensive battle. Giants 24 Eagles 20.

 

AFC 

#3 Bengals @ #2 Bills 

Jan 22

3:00 p.m. EST

CBS

    The Bengals and Bills will essentially be re-playing their game on Jan. 2 that was abruptly canceled when Bills safety Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest and has since been admitted and released from the Cincinnati hospital and has been cheering on his team from the comfort of his home. The Bengals were up 7-3 before the traumatic incident and having these two teams play again just 19 days after the incident does not feel right. Regardless, the game is still on and at the end of the day Hamlin has recovered. Quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense have been struggling as of late going over 30 points just once since Nov. 20. Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills; however, have gone over 30 points each of their last four games and their defense holding opponents to 20 or less 10 times on the season. The Bengals were America’s sweetheart as they made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but I just do not think it is in their cards this year. With a big game from Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the stout defensive presence of the Bills, and a couple explosive returns from Nyheim Hines, I just cannot see Burrow and the Bengals overcoming a great team playing with heavy hearts for their fallen brother. Bills 38 Bengals 27.

 

NFC

#5 Cowboys @ #2 49ers 

Jan 22

6:30 p.m. EST

FOX

    Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy continued last week as he had 332 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and an additional score on the ground. Purdy has had at least two touchdowns since he was handed the keys to Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and has gone for three touchdowns in each of his last two outings. Cowboys quarterback, Dak Prescott, was once in a similar situation as Purdy becoming a star quarterback after an afterthought late-round draft pick in 2016. Now, at the age of 29, Prescott has had his worst season to date throwing for a league-best 15 interceptions and missing five games due to an injury he suffered in the first game of the season. Prescott ended the season on a seven-game interception streak and threw for multiple interceptions in four of those outings. However, last week Prescott looked like his former self and lit up the Buccaneers’ secondary with five total touchdowns and 305 yards through the air. This is by far the most difficult pick of the week, with two explosive offenses and two great defenses going head-to-head. For each weapon one team may have, the opposite has a replica to combat. On offense, the Niners have running back Christian McCaffrey, tight end George Kittle, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and the hybrid athlete of Deebo Samuel who according to ESPN have accounted for 60% of the team’s total yardage together and 68% of their offensive scoring. Not to mention their league-leading scoring defense that gives up just 16.3 points per game led by All-Pros at each level of defense with safety Talanoa Hufanga, linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Nick Bosa. The Cowboys boast a top-five offense and defense of their own led offensively by receiver Ceedee Lamb, running back Tony Pollard and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Defensively, they are led by an elite front seven that consists of linebacker Micah Parsons, defensive lineman DeMarcus Lawrence and linebacker Leighton Vander-Esch to pair with a ball-hawking secondary of DaRon Bland, Trevon Diggs and Malik Hooker. This game has the scripture to be the best game of the whole tournament and it is only the divisional round. I got Purdy continuing his hot streak in an all-time classic with the help of McCaffrey, Bosa and Hufanga, it is a shame that this game is not at least the NFC Championship game. 49ers 28 Cowboys 27.

 

    The divisional round of the playoffs is always an interesting one and this year is no different. We have the Bengals vs Bills storyline to finish, as well as some injury-riddled teams trying to hang on to some regular season magic like the Eagles. The playoffs are going by fast, so just remember to sit back, relax and enjoy some good football this weekend.